What Is a Wollongong Software, SaaS or Managed IT Business Worth?

Founders and IT providers in a smaller regional market usually sell to clients well beyond the Illawarra, some across the country or overseas: the value rests on the cash that customer base will actually produce, wherever it sits.

A Wollongong SaaS business is normally valued with a discounted cash flow, because subscription revenue can be projected from how customer cohorts behave and growth is seldom steady enough for one capitalised year to capture. Retention, churn and net revenue retention drive the risk premium in the discount rate, and private software multiples are used only to test the result.

Why Illawarra software founders ask for a valuation

Founders and IT owners working from Wollongong CBD, North Wollongong, Fairy Meadow or home offices around Shellharbour and Kiama come to us before a capital raise or secondary sale, for an employee share scheme valuation under Division 83A, when co-founders part ways, for a property settlement in the Federal Circuit and Family Court of Australia, and for the market value the ATO expects behind a restructure or an early stage innovation company self-assessment.

An unsolicited approach is the other common trigger. Trade buyers and private capital funds elsewhere in Australia and overseas look at smaller regional software and IT businesses too, and the first figure a founder hears is often a revenue multiple with no working behind it. A certified valuation gives you a reasoned number to set against it before you reply.

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Why a cash flow forecast leads for subscription software

The Income Approach leads. Existing cohorts show how subscription revenue behaves, so it can be projected, and because growth is usually still changing a discounted cash flow suits it far better than one capitalised year of earnings.

We build the forecast from the customer base itself: accounts won, revenue retained and expanded within existing customers, and revenue lost to churn. Each year is discounted to present value with a terminal value on top. A flat growth rate applied to last year's revenue is faster, though it is the first assumption an opposing expert will dismantle.

When growth has flattened and the business has matured, capitalised maintainable earnings are simpler and more suitable. A managed IT provider in Wollongong or Shellharbour with three-year support agreements across local small and mid-sized businesses usually belongs here, not in a cohort model.

The discount rate is assembled, not picked. It starts from a risk-free rate taken from long-dated Australian Government bond yields (Source: RBA, Statistical Tables F2 Capital Market Yields) and adds an equity risk premium, a size premium, an industry premium and a company-specific premium for customer concentration, churn, reliance on a founder or lead engineer, and how far the revenue data can be trusted.

Market cross-check

Private sales of software and IT businesses with similar size, growth and retention, stated as a multiple of annual recurring revenue or of earnings. Listed company multiples are a ceiling and a reasonableness check only, since listed businesses are bigger, easier to trade and more diversified, and those differences outweigh a common subscription model.

Asset cross-check

Seldom more than a floor. Development costs sitting on the balance sheet show accounting policy, not the product's worth, so they are not used as a measure of value.

What changes a software valuation most

Software valuations diverge at normalisation more than at any other step, so each adjustment is explained in the body of the report, not buried in an appendix. For software and IT firms in Wollongong and the Illawarra the usual ones are:

Software and IT businesses in a smaller regional market

The Illawarra's technology sector is smaller than a capital city's, and it is spread rather than clustered. Software founders and managed IT providers work from offices in Wollongong CBD, North Wollongong and Fairy Meadow, from industrial units around Unanderra and Dapto, and from home offices along the coast to Shellharbour and Kiama. Most subscription revenue comes from clients well outside the Illawarra, so a firm's customers matter more to its value than its address.

A smaller market shapes the risk in three ways. Remote clients mean contracts and support are often delivered online, so the quality of retention data and contract terms counts for more than local reputation. Managed IT providers tend to depend on local small and mid-sized businesses on multi-year agreements, which suits a capitalised earnings approach. And in a small team the adjustment that most often moves the numbers is founder pay, reset to what it would cost to hire an equivalent engineering or commercial lead today, which can shift maintainable earnings more than any debate about the multiple. National tax settings apply here too: R&D incentive refunds are stripped out as one-off income, and an early stage innovation company self-assessment is a tax position, not a value conclusion, though it often needs a valuation behind it.

Nationally, information media and telecommunications businesses grew 4.0 per cent in number in 2025 to 2026, and professional, scientific and technical services businesses, the ABS division that includes computer system design and related services, grew 3.6 per cent (Source: ABS, Counts of Australian Businesses, July 2022 to June 2026, released 18 August 2026). More firms means a deeper comparable set for the market cross-check and more competition for the same engineers, which is why the salary benchmark in normalisation is tested against current hiring rates, not last year's payroll.

+3.6%
national growth over 2025 to 2026 in professional, scientific and technical services businesses, the division that takes in computer system design
Source: ABS, Counts of Australian Businesses, July 2022 to June 2026, released 18 August 2026
+4.0%
national growth over 2025 to 2026 in information media and telecommunications businesses
Source: ABS, Counts of Australian Businesses, July 2022 to June 2026, released 18 August 2026
Cohorts
are the base of the forecast, not last year's revenue: accounts won, revenue retained and expanded, and revenue lost to churn

Built to be tested by the other side's expert

The report records why it was commissioned, the standard of value, the valuation date, the information we relied on and where it fell short. It works through each approach considered, the method adopted and every normalisation adjustment with its reason, then reconciles the results into a range, explaining the weighting in words and not leaving it to a formula.

The opposing expert reads the reconciliation first. If the report cannot explain why the cohort forecast was preferred to a revenue multiple, or how the company-specific premium was set, the opinion will not hold up in the Supreme Court of New South Wales in Sydney, where the Expert Witness Code of Conduct in the court rules puts the expert's duty to the court ahead of the client, or in an investor adviser's review. Reports are prepared consistently with APESB, APES 225 Valuation Services and signed by a credentialed certified valuer, who will defend the opinion if it is challenged.

Ask any valuer this

Which input would another expert challenge first, and how would you defend it? If there is no ready answer, the work is not finished.

Choosing a report depth for a software business

Choose an Indicative valuation for a quick read on an unsolicited offer, or an internal price ahead of a secondary sale. It is for internal decision-making and is not written for third party reliance. Choose a Summary report when raising capital, valuing an employee share scheme or buying out a co-founder. Choose a Detailed report for a family law property settlement, a shareholder dispute heading to the Supreme Court of New South Wales in Sydney, or a tax position the ATO may review.

Let the purpose set the depth. The likelier it is that a court, a lender, the ATO or another expert will rely on the opinion, the more of the reasoning the report has to show.

Indicative

For internal decision-making. Useful for testing an offer, setting an expectation before a negotiation, or deciding whether to go to market. It is not written for third party reliance.

Summary

Sets out the approaches applied, the normalisation adjustments made and the reasoning behind the conclusion. The usual choice for a sale, an ownership change or a finance application.

Detailed

Applies and reconciles all relevant approaches in full. The level required where a court, the ATO, a lender or another expert will review the opinion.

Compare the three report types

Questions from Illawarra software founders

Usually a discounted cash flow. The forecast comes from how customer cohorts behave (accounts won, revenue kept and expanded within the base, revenue lost to churn), each year is discounted to present value and a terminal value is added. The discount rate begins at the RBA risk-free rate and adds premiums for size, industry, customer concentration and dependence on key people. Private sale multiples then check the answer.
No single one applies. A revenue multiple is a cross-check, and one borrowed from a listed company nearly always overstates a private business, since listed companies are larger, easier to trade and diversified, which outweighs any shared subscription model. If a multiple is used it comes from private deals of similar size, growth and retention, and the report explains why the chosen point fits.
More than almost any other input. Churn determines how much of today's revenue survives into each forecast year, so it moves the cash flows directly, and churn that is erratic or badly tracked also raises the company-specific premium in the discount rate. A business unable to show its retention from its own records will be valued more cautiously for that reason alone.
They are examined, not accepted. Development spend on the balance sheet reflects an accounting policy and is not proof of what the product is worth. The valuation looks instead at the cash the product generates and the spending needed to keep it competitive, and the treatment follows whichever earnings measure the model uses.
The risk profile shifts more than the method does. Remote clients are normal for software and mean a wider, less local customer base, which supports the forecast, but contracts, support and data handling must then stand up without local relationships. We examine where revenue comes from, contract terms, renewal history and how far a few large customers or one lead engineer carry the business, and weigh these in the company-specific premium.
From seven business days once the data set is complete. Pace depends mainly on monthly recurring revenue with cohort retention, three years of financial statements, the capitalisation table and any customer contract large enough to move the result.
Yes. It values one class of shares at one date instead of the whole company, so the capitalisation table, liquidation preferences and vesting terms all matter. It also needs documentation strong enough to withstand later review by the ATO or an incoming investor, which normally means a Summary or Detailed report rather than an Indicative one. That holds whether the team works from an office in Wollongong CBD or from home offices around the Illawarra.

Book a Free Consultation

Talk your situation through with a certified valuer before you commit to anything, at no cost.

Andrew Mackson
Andrew Mackson, CFA, ABV, CBV
Managing Partner · 15+ years
Book a Free Consultation →

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