Valuing an NDIS or Aged Care Provider in Wollongong

Supported independent living, home care and community access businesses from Helensburgh to Kiama are valued on the margin left after award wages, travel between clients and the cost of staying registered.

NDIS, home care and aged care providers in the Illawarra are valued on the income approach. Earnings are restated once the roster and the owner's own hours are costed at award and market rates, then capitalised at a rate that openly carries the risks particular to the sector: regulated price limits, exposure to award wage decisions and reliance on a few participants.

What leads Illawarra care providers to a valuation

Most requests sit behind a deal or an ownership change: selling or buying a provider, a shareholder joining or leaving, a property settlement, a new bank facility, or a restructure where the ATO will look for market value. Larger groups are buying, so the owner of a supported independent living business in Dapto or Albion Park Rail can receive an unexpected offer and need to know quickly whether it deserves a serious reply. Many providers were also founded by owners now nearing retirement, and passing the business to family or senior staff needs a price just as a sale does.

There is a quieter reason too: a candid look at the margin. A home care operator serving older clients in Shellharbour or Kiama, or a community access provider based in Unanderra, earns the gap between the government-set price for each support and the award wage it pays. Once the owner's own evening and weekend shifts are costed at award rates, some businesses turn out to be paying their owner a wage rather than a return. It is far better to hear that from your own valuer than from a buyer's due diligence team.

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How a care provider's value is built up

The Income Approach comes first. Most income arrives from rostered supports funded by plans or packages that repeat week after week, so a purchaser prices the business on what that roster can keep earning. We take the same view, provided the capitalisation rate shows the regulatory risk openly instead of burying it.

The provider-specific premium is often the largest part of the rate. It reflects how thin the gap is between the price limit and the award wage, how much income relies on a few high-value plans, how the provider stands on audits and registration, and whether its compliance records are good enough for a buyer to depend on.

When a known change lies ahead, a discounted cash flow is the better tool. A new registration group, a specialist disability accommodation property filling up in the western Illawarra, or a price review working through the roster over the coming year can be forecast year by year, where a single capitalised year would miss it.

In most engagements we capitalise future maintainable earnings. Reported profit is adjusted for the owner's hours, award-compliant rostering and the true cost of staying registered, and the result is divided by a rate built from a risk-free base plus premiums for the market, the sector and the provider.

Market cross-check

Sales of providers of similar size, mix of supports and registration groups supply the evidence. A home care business on the coast and a supported independent living operator in the western suburbs run on different cost structures and carry different risks, so comparables are chosen one at a time and not averaged.

Asset cross-check

The assets give a floor, not the answer. Vehicles, equipment and fit-out are taken at market value. Any supported accommodation the provider owns or head-leases is treated as property and valued apart from the trading business.

Adjusting a care provider's earnings

Valuation disputes usually begin in the normalisation schedule, so each adjustment is explained in the report with its reason. For NDIS, home care and aged care providers the usual items are these.

Care and disability providers across the Illawarra

Providers operate where their clients live. Supported independent living and specialist disability accommodation tend to sit where housing is more affordable, and the growth areas of the western Illawarra, around Dapto and Albion Park Rail, draw newer operators. Home care providers serve an older population along the coast, from Helensburgh through Wollongong and Shellharbour to Kiama. Wollongong Hospital and Shellharbour Hospital, under the Illawarra Shoalhaven Local Health District, are the points from which many discharge and transition referrals begin. Where a provider's clients live sets its roster, its travel bill and in the end its margin.

That pattern changes both the comparable set and the risk view. A provider whose clients live a few streets apart runs on a very different cost base from one covering the same number of clients between Helensburgh and Kiama, so the valuation is built from the real roster rather than an ideal one. Travel time is a direct cost, so a provider that took on every plan in every suburb tends to earn less than its turnover implies. New South Wales adds its own costs on top of the national rules. Payroll tax under the Payroll Tax Act 2007 (NSW) is administered by Revenue NSW, and workers compensation is regulated by SIRA and insured through icare, both significant in a business made up mostly of wages.

Registration and price rules in the sector are federal. The NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission and the Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission set the compliance requirements, and national pricing and funding decisions, not competition in any one suburb, are the main risk. Health care and social assistance businesses grew 6.7 per cent in the national count over 2025 to 2026, to 227,702 (Source: ABS, Counts of Australian Businesses, June 2026, released 18 August 2026), so provider businesses keep changing hands.

6.7%
rise in Australia's health care and social assistance businesses over 2025 to 2026
Source: ABS, Counts of Australian Businesses, June 2026, released 18 August 2026
227,702
health care and social assistance businesses across Australia at June 2026
Source: ABS, Counts of Australian Businesses, June 2026, released 18 August 2026

Why a care provider report holds up under review

The opening section states the purpose of the engagement, the standard of value, the valuation date and the information relied on, and says where that information is limited. The report goes on to cover every approach considered, the method chosen under each, each earnings adjustment and the reason for it, and ends by bringing the results together in a range with the weighting explained in plain terms.

That reconciliation is what lets the opinion survive scrutiny. If a judge, a lender or an opposing expert asks why earnings outweighed sales evidence, or why a particular point in the range was chosen, the report already answers it. Reports follow APESB, APES 225 Valuation Services and are signed by a certified valuer prepared to explain and defend the conclusion in the District Court at Wollongong, the Supreme Court of New South Wales in Sydney, a property settlement before the Federal Circuit and Family Court of Australia, or an ATO review. Court experts work under the Expert Witness Code of Conduct in the court rules.

One question for any valuer

Ask which assumption a buyer's adviser would attack first, such as the margin beneath the price limit or reliance on a few participants, and how it would be defended. A valuer who has not thought it through still has work to do.

Choosing the report for a care provider

An Indicative valuation helps an owner judge whether an approach is worth pursuing, or what a succession plan might need to fund. It is for internal decision-making and is not written for third party reliance. A Summary report suits a sale, a shareholder change or a bank facility. A Detailed report is the level for a property settlement, a dispute between owners, or any matter where another expert will scrutinise the opinion.

The more likely it is that a court, a lender or the ATO will test the figure, the fuller the report should be.

Indicative

For internal decision-making. Useful for testing an offer, setting an expectation before a negotiation, or deciding whether to go to market. It is not written for third party reliance.

Summary

Sets out the approaches applied, the normalisation adjustments made and the reasoning behind the conclusion. The usual choice for a sale, an ownership change or a finance application.

Detailed

Applies and reconciles all relevant approaches in full. The level required where a court, the ATO, a lender or another expert will review the opinion.

Compare the three report types

Questions Illawarra care providers ask us

Mainly on the income approach. We restate earnings after costing the roster and the owner's own hours at award and market rates, then capitalise them at a rate that carries the sector's risks openly, such as price limits, award wage changes and reliance on a few participants. Sales of similar providers are used as a cross-check, and vehicles, equipment and fit-out give a floor.
Because many owners work evenings and weekends on the roster without a proper wage. When those hours are costed at award rates, part of the reported profit turns out to be pay for the owner. A buyer would need to replace that labour, so the cost comes off maintainable earnings before they are capitalised.
They affect the earnings we capitalise and the rate we use. Price limits, registration requirements and quality and safeguards rules are federal, and a change can alter the margin quickly. We reflect the position at the valuation date in earnings and carry the remaining uncertainty as a risk premium in the capitalisation rate.
Yes, because the business is mostly wages. Payroll tax under the Payroll Tax Act 2007 (NSW) is administered by Revenue NSW, and workers compensation is regulated by SIRA and insured through icare. We test both against actual wages in the accounts, because an understated cost overstates earnings and therefore value.
Certified reports are ready from seven business days once the information is in. The timetable usually depends on how fast the provider can supply financial statements, roster and wage records, participant and funding concentration data, audit outcomes and any property leases.
Not automatically. Value follows the margin, and the margin follows the roster. A provider whose clients are close together has lower travel costs and a tighter roster, while one covering the whole coast carries more travel time. We build the valuation from the actual roster and compare it with providers of a similar shape, not simply a similar revenue.

Book a Free Consultation

Talk your situation through with a certified valuer before you commit to anything, at no cost.

Andrew Mackson
Andrew Mackson, CFA, ABV, CBV
Managing Partner · 15+ years
Book a Free Consultation →

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