Valuing a Childcare or Early Learning Centre in Wollongong

Whether the centre is a long day care service in Dapto, a converted house near North Wollongong or a purpose-built site at Shellharbour, buyers price it from what similar centres have sold for, then test that figure against the earnings its rooms can sustain.

A childcare centre in the Illawarra is usually valued against recent sales of comparable centres, shown per licensed place and as a multiple of earnings. That evidence is adjusted for the occupancy the centre holds across a year, its quality rating and its lease, and the result is tested by capitalising earnings once a salaried director stands in for a working owner.

Why Illawarra centre owners ask for a valuation

Most instructions follow a transaction or a disagreement. A corporate operator has approached the owner of a centre in Dapto with an unsolicited offer. A couple who built a centre together at Albion Park Rail are separating and need the business valued at a fixed date. One of two co-owners wants to buy out the other. A lender asks for a figure before funding a second site. Or an accountant is moving several centres into a new group and the ATO will look for market value.

Many owners ask well before they intend to sell. Likely buyers are groups and investors that have reviewed hundreds of centres, so a seller with no evidence-based figure negotiates from behind. Valuing early also shows what is holding the price down while there is time to fix it: empty places in one room, a lease close to expiry, a Working Towards rating, or educator costs inflated by agency cover.

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How comparable centre sales are used

The Market Approach carries the most weight. Operators, private owners and property investors buy long day care centres across the Illawarra and the rest of New South Wales often enough that recorded sales are better evidence than a forecast.

Each guideline sale is screened for licensed places, occupancy, quality rating, lease term left, catchment and whether the property sold with the business. It is then shown per licensed place and as a multiple of maintainable earnings.

Three close matches say more than twenty loose ones. A newly built centre on a long lease in a growing western Illawarra estate tells you little about an older converted house near the Wollongong CBD with two years of lease remaining, even if both sold in the same quarter.

The earnings cross-check

Earnings are capitalised only after the owner's hours are costed at a qualified director's salary. A centre that looks profitable because the owner draws no wage is exposed at this stage.

The asset cross-check

Outdoor areas, equipment and fit-out are valued at what they would realise today. The building counts only where the owner holds it, and a freehold is a separate interest that investors price on rental yield and operators on trading.

Normalisation adjustments for a childcare centre

Two valuations of one centre usually diverge at normalisation, so each adjustment in our reports sits beside its reason. For Illawarra childcare centres the usual ones are:

Childcare across Wollongong, Shellharbour and Kiama

Location changes how a buyer reads a centre. Newer housing in the western Illawarra, around Albion Park Rail, Shellharbour and Dapto, draws purpose-built centres on long investor leases, and a new opening nearby can take enrolments before the estate fills. Established areas such as Fairy Meadow and North Wollongong have smaller centres on tight sites. Centres near Wollongong Hospital and the University of Wollongong can draw working parents with fixed hours. Kiama and the southern Illawarra have a smaller population base, so a single new centre there is easier to see in the occupancy figures.

Childcare is regulated nationally and in New South Wales. A service needs approval from the state regulator and is assessed against the National Quality Standard, while the Child Care Subsidy that families receive is paid by the Commonwealth. A buyer will check the service approval, the current rating, any conditions or compliance history, and the qualifications of the educators that ratios depend on. Council development consent can also cap the number of children on a site, whatever the building could physically hold.

Licensed places are a ceiling, not an outcome. A centre approved for 80 places that fills 58 is valued on the 58 it can hold, with credit for the gap only where nearby supply and local growth make filling it likely. Demand around the sector keeps building: health care and social assistance, the ABS division that includes child care services, grew by 6.7 per cent nationally in 2025 to 2026 (Source: ABS, Counts of Australian Businesses, July 2022 to June 2026, released 18 August 2026). For a seller that means more sales to compare against, and for a centre in a growth estate it can mean a new competitor nearby.

6.7%
national rise in health care and social assistance businesses in 2025 to 2026; child care services sit in this ABS division
Source: ABS, Counts of Australian Businesses, July 2022 to June 2026, released 18 August 2026
2 layers
of oversight apply to a New South Wales centre: the national quality framework, and the state regulator that approves and assesses each service
Places filled
not places licensed, is what a buyer pays for, because the service approval only sets the ceiling

How the report is set out and tested

The report states the purpose, the standard of value, the valuation date and the records relied on, and flags any gaps. It then takes each approach in turn with the method used, lists every normalisation adjustment with its reason, and reconciles the results into a range whose weighting is explained in plain English.

If the figure is challenged, the reasoning is all that remains. An opposing expert looks first for an unexplained choice, such as why sales were preferred to capitalised earnings or why the centre sits at a particular point among them. That scrutiny can arrive in a property settlement before the Federal Circuit and Family Court of Australia, in a dispute between co-owners heard in the District Court at Wollongong, or in the Supreme Court of New South Wales in Sydney, and expert evidence in those courts is governed by the Expert Witness Code of Conduct in the court rules. Our reports follow APESB, APES 225 Valuation Services and are signed by a certified valuer who is ready to defend them.

A question for anyone valuing your centre

Which assumption would the other side's expert challenge first, and what is your answer? A valuer who can reply straight away has done the groundwork.

Which report depth fits a centre

An Indicative valuation is a sensible first step when an operator has made contact and you want your own number before responding. It is for internal decision-making and is not written for third party reliance. A Summary report suits a sale to an unrelated buyer, a co-owner buying in or a lender funding another site. A Detailed report is needed for a property settlement, an owners' dispute or any matter where an opposing expert will examine the work.

The reader sets the depth. If a court, a lender, the ATO or another valuer could test the figure, the full reasoning should be on paper.

Indicative

For internal decision-making. Useful for testing an offer, setting an expectation before a negotiation, or deciding whether to go to market. It is not written for third party reliance.

Summary

Sets out the approaches applied, the normalisation adjustments made and the reasoning behind the conclusion. The usual choice for a sale, an ownership change or a finance application.

Detailed

Applies and reconciles all relevant approaches in full. The level required where a court, the ATO, a lender or another expert will review the opinion.

Compare the three report types

Questions from Illawarra childcare owners

Mainly from what comparable centres have sold for. We shortlist sales with similar licensed places, occupancy, rating, lease and catchment, show them per place and as an earnings multiple, then check the result by capitalising earnings after a salaried director replaces a working owner.
No single figure applies. A place in a full centre on a long lease at Shellharbour is a different asset from a place in a half-empty centre in a new estate. Value turns on how many places stay filled through the year, the daily fee in that catchment, the rating, the lease left and whether the property is included. The sales relied on are listed in the report, with a note on where the centre falls within them.
Considerably, in two ways. Families look at the rating when choosing, so it flows into occupancy, and a buyer prices the cost of holding or lifting it. For a Working Towards centre, a buyer usually allows for improvement spending and slower enrolment growth, and pays less until the service is reassessed.
Only when the engagement says so, and then as its own valuation. Investors buy childcare freeholds for rent and tenant strength, while operators buy the business for its trading. Where the owner, a family trust or an SMSF holds the property, the rent in the accounts is reset to market before the business is valued, so a related-party lease does not skew the answer.
Certified reports arrive from seven business days after we hold the information. The pace mostly depends on how quickly the centre can supply three years of accounts, occupancy by room and week, its service approval and rating, the lease and educator rosters.
Only where it converts to enrolments. In an established suburb with little new supply, a list that has reliably filled vacancies supports the occupancy the multiple is applied to. A list padded with families registered at several centres adds nothing, and a careful buyer will ask for the conversion history.
Yes, they can. Where new housing is going up around Albion Park Rail, Shellharbour and Dapto, purpose-built centres often open before the families arrive, and a nearby opening can slow enrolments at an existing centre for a year or two. We look at approved and planned centres in the catchment, the occupancy trend since the last opening nearby and the centre's fees against the newer competition before settling on the occupancy to value.
A buyer will ask for the service approval, the current assessment and rating, any compliance notices, educator qualifications and the supervisor and director arrangements. We review the same records, because a condition or an unresolved notice can change the occupancy and cost assumptions in the valuation, and the report says which records were relied on.

Book a Free Consultation

Talk your situation through with a certified valuer before you commit to anything, at no cost.

Andrew Mackson
Andrew Mackson, CFA, ABV, CBV
Managing Partner · 15+ years
Book a Free Consultation →

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